Today, the southwest monsoon has further advanced into some parts of central Arabian Sea, remaining parts of Kerala, most parts of Coastal Karnataka and some parts of South Interior Karnataka and some more parts of interior Tamil Nadu. The Northern Limit of Monsoon (NLM) passes through Lat. 14 0N/ Long 600E, Lat 14 0N/ Long 700E, Shirali, Hassan, Mysuru, Kodaikanal, Tuticorin, Lat. 090N/ Long 800E, Lat. 130N/ Long 850E, Lat.18 0N/ Long 900E, Lat. 21 0N/ Long 930E.
An east-west shear zone runs roughly along latitude 120N (across south peninsula) in the middle levels. The low pressure area over southeast and adjoining east central Arabian Sea off north Kerala- Karnataka coasts has become less marked. Yesterday’s well marked low pressure area lies over east central and adjoining northeast Bay of Bengal concentrated into a Depression during the noon time and further intensified into a Deep Depression in the evening of yesterday. It moved northeast wards and crossed Myanmar coast close to north of Kyakpyu around mid night and weakened into a Depression in the early morning of today over Myanmar. It is very likely to move northeastwards and weaken further.
Conditions are favorable for further advance of Southwest Monsoon into some parts of northeastern states during next 48 hours. Conditions are likely to become favorable for further advance of southwest monsoon into some more parts of south Peninsula around 3rd June, with the likely development of favorable circulation features leading increase of rainfall over interior Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh and Telangana. Rainfall activity is likely to increase over parts of Maharashtra & Goa states from 6 th June, leading to probable advance over these areas during 6 th to 8th June .
Rainfall over the country as a whole for the 2018 southwest monsoon season (June to September) is most likely to be NORMAL (96% to 104% of long period average (LPA)). Quantitatively, monsoon season (June to September) rainfall for the country as a whole is likely to be 97% of the LPA with a model error of ±4%.
- Taken From IMD. For updated forecast kindly visit: http://www.imd.gov.in/pages/allindiawxfcbulletin.php