Cotton Association of India Lowers Crop Estimates for 2020-21

Cotton Association of India has reduced its cotton crop forecast to 354.50 lakh bales, lower by 1.50 lakh bales in its July estimate for 2020-21, compared to last month, after lower production in Gujarat and Telangana. While the total cotton production in 2019-2020 was around 360 lakh bales.  

Cotton Production Estimates: 

The CAI has maintained its cotton crop production estimate for North India will be same as in its previous month’s estimate of 65.50 Lakh Bales. While for central India reduced by 0.50 lakh bales to 193.50 lakh bales from 194 lakh bales estimated during the last month. 

CAI also said there is a reduction of 2.50 lakh bales in the crop estimate for Gujarat; while for Maharashtra and Madhya Pradesh; it has increased by 1.50 lakh bales, respectively compared to the estimates of these states made in the previous month. 

The Crop estimate for Southern India has been reduced by 1 lakh bales to 90.50 lakh bales made during the last month, as per the CAI data. The total supply estimated by the CAI during the period from October 2020 to July 2021 is 482.61 lakh bales.

This consists of arrivals of 348.61 lakh bales, imports of 9 lakh bales and the opening stock at the beginning of the season on October 11, 2020 at 125 lakh bales. 

Domestic and Export Estimates: 

Domestic consumption for the year 2020 – 21 that is up to September 30, 2021 is estimated to be higher by 5 lakh bales considering the high demand for cotton yarn despite disruptions caused by lockdown.  

The CAI has also increased the exports estimates for the season to 77 lakh bales from its previous estimate of 72 lakh, based on the feedback received from exporter members. 

This export estimate is higher by 27 lakh bales from 50 lakh bales in the previous year. The carryover stock at the end of the season i.e on September 30, 2021 is now estimated at 82.50 lakh. 

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