Monsoons Still Deficient in Many States - Will India’s Crop Output Fall This Year?

The monsoon rainfall has revived in the month of July. For the period 1 Jun 2022 to 25 Jul 2022, the South West Monsoon is 11% above LPA compared with the last year. However, the official data shows that rains have been geographically uneven, with concentration seen in central and southern India, trailing in the northwest and a steep 15% below-normal in the east and the northeast. Reports say that out of 36 subdivisions, 7 of them have received deficient rainfall as of July 25.

As per the latest Government figures, the acreage for rice which is grown predominantly in rain deficient areas is down around 17% year on year. The acreage for the Kharif pulses has increased, but the area for Tur is down nearly 20% over the previous year. On the other hand, the acreage for moong has gone down sharply. Meanwhile, there has been a rise in the sown area of coarse cereals, oilseeds and cotton. Overall, the food grain acreage was lower by 4.6% YoY, till the middle of July.

Despite the slower planting acreage, one should not lose hope since the sowing period for most of the Kharif crops extends till August usually. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has projected a normal southwest monsoon this year. Therefore, in case the monsoon rains progress satisfactorily in the month of August and has an even distribution geographically, then the planted area can still pick up.

In context to the reservoir and water storage situation - With the exception of the Eastern region (Jharkhand, Odisha, Bihar, and Tripura) all the other regions have adequate storage compared with the 2020-2021 fiscal year. However, it is still lower than the 10-year average storage level for Northern (Punjab, Rajasthan and Himachal Pradesh) and Central region (Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Chhattisgarh and Madhya Pradesh).

As per the IMD, there was 68% deficit rain in Uttar Pradesh till 20^th of July. The rainfall deficit was 51% in Jharkhand, 49% in Bihar, 40% in Manipur, 30% in Tripura, 27% in West Bengal, 22% in Delhi, 21% in Mizoram, 18% in Nagaland, and 16% in Uttarakhand.