Agri Futures Market Recap: Expected Weekly Trend For Actively Traded Counters

CASTOR: Castor seed traded firm during the greater part of the week and the March contract established a high of 7248, almost achieving our second of 7250 (projected during the first week of January. The new season arrivals shall increase in the next few weeks, and may halt the upward journey for a while. As of now, the trend remains bullish as the daily arrivals are thin. The medium-term charts suggest that as long as the March contract closes above 6750, the tendency for prices to establish new highs can be expected for this week.

SPICES: April turmeric faced resistance in moving above during the greater part of the week because of an increase in arrivals in the state of Andhra Pradesh. Futures bounced back towards the weekend session as the lower price offers could attract buying in the major trade centers of South and West. Jeera was supported during the week mainly because of lower arrival pace, but demand was light since the consistent gain in prices had prompted buyers to wait for fresh discounts. As understood from the weekly charts, the March contract of Jeera shall not show any signs of a short term correction, unless it closes below 21900-21910 support. Likewise, the April contract of turmeric shall tend to attempt for 10600-10700, in case it closes above 9950 for next 1-2 trading sessions.

MENTHA OIL: Mentha oil was under pressure during the week but prices are now attractive for fresh stocking and this will be influential in supporting the futures market in the coming days. The near-term charts now suggest that February Mentha oil of MCX shall prepare for a moderate upside pullback towards 975-980, in case it closes consistently above 950 during the early part of the week.   

COTTON COMPLEX: Global cotton markets failed to offer any fresh trigger due to which the domestic markets were under pressure since the last few trading sessions. Futures prices were moderately on Friday mainly from short covering. The broader fundamentals are positive therefore in case physical demand improves in the major trade centers, we may observe a decent recovery this week. Viewing technically, a moderately bullish view in MCX Feb cotton for this week, and one can buy the contract at small dips, in case the contract manages to close above 37200 consistently. The weekly target will be 38400-38600. The Cotton cake March contract of NCDEX on the other hand is expected to trade between 3175 and 3335 respectively this week.

GUAR COMPLEX: Selling activity had improved in the last few days in the guar complex basket because of the narrowing spread between the spot and futures prices. This put pressure over guar seed, GUAREX index, and guar gum futures during the week. However buyers were stepping at every correction as the trade situation was perceived to be quite healthy from a broader term perspective. 

In forthcoming trading sessions, we expect the futures market to remain supported since the export-related queries are reportedly increasing now, and at the same time the local markets are reflecting a stable demand situation amongst retailers as well as the stockists.

Going by the weekly charts, we expect the contracts to trade with an upside bias in coming days, but any significant upside is unlikely in the derivatives market. March guar seed has a strong support near 6230-6250, while March guar gum support will be near 11750.