CAI Retains 2019-20 Cotton Crop Estimate at 354.5 Lakh Bales

The Cotton Association of India (CAI) has recently released its January month cotton crop estimates for 2019-20 season beginning October 1, 2019, which stands at 354.50 lakh bales of 170 kg each even after the huge pink bollworm infestation in Gujarat, which is the largest cotton-growing region of India. However, opening stock at the beginning of the current season has been revised from 23.50 lakh bales to 32 lakh bales.

"The crop estimate for Gujarat state, the top domestic producer, has been reduced by 4 lakh bales on account of crop damage due to heavy rains and pink bollworm infestation. About 10 percent of the cotton farmers in the state have uprooted their cotton plants and wish to migrate to other competing crops," said Atul Ganatra, President, CAI, on Wednesday.

What’s the Cotton Supply Estimate?

 As per report, the total cotton supply estimated by the CAI during the months of October 2019 to January 2020 is 234.89 lakh bales, which consists of the arrivals of 192.89 lakh bales up to January 31 (equivalent to 205 lakh running bales of 160 kg each), imports of 10.00 lakh bales up to January 31, and the opening stock of 32 lakh bales at the beginning of the season.

What’s the Estimate of Cotton Consumption?

 On the other hand, the CAI has estimated cotton consumption during the months of October 2019 to January 2020 at 106 lakh bales (equivalent to 113 lakh running bales), while the export shipment of cotton estimated by the CAI up to January 31 is 20 lakh bales. Stock at the end of January 2020 is estimated by the CAI at 108.89 lakh bales (equivalent to 115.70 lakh running bales) including 38 lakh bales (equivalent to 40 lakh running bales) with textile mills and remaining 70.89 lakh bales with CCI and others (MNCs, traders, ginners, etc). Kapas has not been considered in the stock figures, CAI said in a press release.

As per the report of Economic Times, the yearly Balance Sheet projected by the CAI estimated total cotton supply till the end of the cotton season i.e. up to September 30, 2020, at 411.50 lakh bales. The total cotton supply consists of the Opening Stock of 32 lakh bales at the beginning of the season, crop for the season estimated at 354.50 lakh bales and imports estimated by the CAI at 25.00 lakh bales, which are lower by 7.00 lakh bales compared to the previous year’s estimate at 32.00 lakh bales.

Domestic consumption estimated by the CAI for the entire crop year i.e. up to September 30, 2020, is 331 lakh bales i.e. at the same level as estimated by the Cotton Advisory Board at their meeting held on November 28, 2019. The CAI has estimated exports for the season at 42 lakh bales i.e. at the same level as estimated in the previous year. The carryover stock estimated at the end of the season is 38.50 lakh bales i.e. higher by 8.50 lakh bales compared to that estimated earlier.