Cumin Markets turn subdued: similar trend may continue this month

Cumin market was somewhat firm during March, but market started falling thereafter. As lockdown restrictions increased against rising Covid cases, slowing spot trade interest weakened market sentiments and pushed prices lower. The wholesale offers for the NCDEX grade Jeera are currently offered around Rs.14000/qtl in Unjha and in Jodhpur, the mandi offers average near Rs.13900/qtl. Over a month, the wholesale prices in Unjha and Jodhpur have gone down by Rs.400/qtl and Rs.700/qtl respectively. 

The export related orders are minimal currently because of increasing lockdown restrictions amongst different borders. There is a good market for the Bold and Super bold quality in Europe and the United States. The qualities mentioned are one of the premium qualities of Jeera, having greater medicinal and organic value. China, Middle East Countries and Egypt are other traditional buyers of Indian cumin seed. Turkey and Syria are the nearest competitors in the exports market.  

India is the leading producer and exporter of Jeera globally. India’s share is around 70 percent of world’s Jeera production, while Syria and Turkey contribute around 20 percent and 10 percent of the total world production of cumin seed respectively Jeera is available in different qualities and prices differ as per the quality. As India struggles against curbing the Corona pandemic, exports markets have turned subdued. The importers prefer to wait for the situation to normalize before negotiating for fresh deals. They rather prefer to clear their older stocks first and presently they feel that the older inventory may be sufficient to balance the existing demand for next few weeks easily.  

The new season arrivals shall continue with good numbers hence there will be ample availability in the market. However from a broader perspective, India’s exports outlook has brightened while crop is expected to be lower versus year on year. Also, the nearest export competitors i.e. Turkey and Syria may not supply much to the world due to lower exportable surplus. 

Therefore the wholesale prices of Jeera may not rise much this month. Since the broader view is positive, we rule out possibility of any major fall from current offers as of now. Going by the charts May/June Jeera at NCDEX may trade between Rs 13500-14500/qtl this month.