India’s Rice Exports to Drop by 1.5 mt to 19.5 mt in 2023, says USDA

The USDA said that the decline in exports is primarily caused by an expected decline in rice production in India due to a drop in the monsoon rainfall in the important grain-growing states in eastern India.

Given weaker shipments from its biggest rivals, India and Pakistan, Thailand’s exports are expected to rise by 0.6mt to 8.2 mt.

The USDA has stated that India remains the most competitively-priced source for rice in Asia despite the government announcing in September a 20% export tariff on the shipment of non-basmati and non-parboiled rice, despite projecting a marginal decline of 0.4 mt in global rice trade to 53mt in 2023.

For the week ending November 8, 2022, India’s price quotes for bulk-shipped 5% broken-kernel rice were $380/tonne, while Pakistan’s and Argentina’s were $415/tonne and $415/tonne respectively.

In September, India outlawed the export of broken rice which was later utilized as animal feed.

Despite a decrease in shipment, officials have predicted that India would continue to remain the world’s largest exporter of grain in the following year as well.

In addition, the USDA has predicted a 2mt decrease in production for China, which is the top exporter of rice in the world, from a record output for 2021/22 to 147mt.  Due to flooding in the Indus River basin, Pakistan’s rice production is predicted to drop by 2.5mt to 6.6mt.

The agricultural ministry has also predicted that rice production in the current Kharif season for the 2022-23 crop year (June-July) would decrease by about 6mt to 124mt from a record 130mt reported in the previous year in its first advance estimate for foodgrain production in September.

In the last ten years, India has been the greatest rice exporter in the world; with export revenues totaling $8.8 billion in the fiscal year (April-June) 2020-21 and $9.6 billion in 2021-22. 11 million tonnes of rice worth $5.4 billion have been shipped in the current fiscal year (April to September).

Around 40% of the world’s rice commerce comes from India, which also exports to more than 150 nations.

India exported more than 17mt non-basmati rice out of the 21 mt of rice that was shipped in 2021-22; out of which the remaining volume was made up of aromatic, long-grain basmati rice.

Bangladesh, China, Benin, and Nepal are the top five countries for rice exports in terms of volume.

An official from the food ministry claimed in September that there had been a “mind-boggling” increase in broken rice exports, which had led to domestic shortages and higher prices for poultry and feed meal. Broken rice is used as feed in the poultry industry and is primarily intended for animal consumption.