India's Sugar Outlook: AISTA Forecasts 4% Drop in Production for 2023-24 Season

The All India Sugar Trade Association (AISTA) has released its projections for India's sugar production in the upcoming 2023-24 season, foreseeing a decrease of around four percent compared to the previous season. Despite challenges such as diversions for ethanol production and unseasonal rains impacting certain states, AISTA estimates an overall production of 31.6 million tonnes, with potential implications for the nation's sugar industry.

Sugar's Nationwide Estimate and Stock Forecast

AISTA anticipates the country's sugar production to reach 31.6 million tonnes for the October 2023-September 2024 season, excluding a 2 million tonnes sucrose diversion for ethanol. With an opening stock of 5.7 million tonnes, the total availability is expected to be 37.3 million tonnes, surpassing the estimated domestic consumption of 29 million tonnes.

State-wise Projections of Sugar

Uttar Pradesh leads with an estimated production of 11.7 million tonnes, surpassing last season's 10.7 million tonnes, attributed to increased diversion of cane to Gur and Khandsari units. Maharashtra, the largest sugar-producing state, faces a dip to 9.6 million tonnes due to unseasonal rains. Karnataka, the third-largest producer, is projected at 4.7 million tonnes, influenced by earlier fears of a drastic reduction due to drought.

Maharashtra Sugar Challenges and Opportunities

Unseasonal rains in Maharashtra have impacted harvesting labor, leading to a prolonged season. AISTA suggests this delay might result in increased yield and sucrose content, potentially exceeding initial production expectations. Most mills in Maharashtra are now expected to operate until March-end.

Karnataka's Recovery and Concerns

Karnataka's production is estimated lower at 4.7 million tonnes, primarily due to initial fears of drought and a shortened season. AISTA outlines the concerns expressed at the season's beginning and how the state's performance may be impacted.