US Oilseeds Production Expected to Drop

The WASDE report from USDA shows that soybean production in the US is expected to fall due to fewer soybean acres planted across the country. Moreover, soybean exports from the US could also drop due to the lowered production forecast.

The USDA didn’t touch its soybean yield estimate in the July report. The latest report indicates U.S. soybean production will fall 135 million bushels this year to 4.5 billion bushels. The reduction is partially due to USDA’s June acreage report showing fewer soybean acres across the U.S. with the latest forecast falling to 87.5 million planted acres this year.

The U.S. oilseed production for 2022/23 is projected at 132.7 million tons, which is down 3.9 million from last month. The production forecast includes reductions for soybeans, canola, peanuts, and cottonseed, followed by an increase for sunflower seed. The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2022/23 is forecast at $14.40 per bushel, down $0.30 from last month. The 2022/23 global oilseed supply and demand forecasts include lower production, lower exports, higher crush, and lower ending stocks compared to last month.

The United States, Brazil, Argentina, Canada, Paraguay, and Uruguay are the largest producers and exporters of soybean globally, accounting for more than 85.0% of the global production. The United States was the world’s major producer and exporter of soybean, for many years. The scenario changed dramatically in 20219, when the production increased significantly in Brazil. The rise in Brazilian soybean production attributed to favourable growing conditions, accelerated by the soil quality, weather conditions, and water availability.

The experts have projected the world soybean market to register a CAGR of 3-3.5% between 2022 and 2027. The global soybean market was affected during the COVID-19 pandemic from the supply chain disruptions and trade restrictions.

As a result, there was reduced production of soybean by-products, which was also reflected in the soybean market. The soybean market is driven by the increasing adoption of vegan diets in western countries due to the popularity of plant-rich proteins in the diet. Increasing increased health awareness among consumers due to the higher standard of living also impacted the market positively in recent years.