USDA raises Global 2020-21 Soybean trade estimate; World ending stocks also estimated higher

August month’s USDA report was released yesterday and the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) has raised its forecast for US 2020-21 (September-August marketing season) soybean production by 290 million bushels to 4.425 billion bushels, considering possible rise in the yields. The USDA has increased the US soybean yield forecast of 53.3 bushels an acre by 3.5 bushels from last month's report, thus revising by 5.9 bushels higher year on year.

Harvested area for the US crop was forecast at 83.0 million acres, unchanged from the July projection. The Agriculture Department of the US raised exports from US by 75 million bushels versus its July report at 2.13 billion bushels on increased global import demand, increased supplies and lower prices. The average market estimate for US soybeans ending stocks in 2020-21 was 525 million bushels. The USDA put the 2020-21 US season-average soybean price at $8.35/bu, down 15 cents from its July estimate. The soybean meal price is projected at $290 a short ton, down $10 from last month and soybean oil price forecast is up 1 cent on July estimates at 30 cents/lb.

2019-20 Estimates for US Crop

The report estimated the US is estimated to export 1.650 billion bushels of soybeans in 2019-20 marketing year which is same as July's estimate. On the other hand US soybean ending stocks for 2019-20 are projected at 615 million bushels, down 5 million from last month. The average market estimate for 2019-20 US soybean ending stock was 616 million bushels.

2020-2021 Global Estimates

The USDA has raised global 2020-21 soybean trade by 3.9 million mt, with higher export estimates for Brazil, Argentina and the US. Higher soybean import demand is expected from China, Thailand, Argentina, Egypt, and India, as per this month’s demand and supply report of the US Department of Agriculture. The USDA  also increased its global ending stocks forecast by 300,000 mt to 95.4 million, with higher global soybean production mostly offset by higher use in 2020-21, mainly in China.