Weekly Outlook for Major Agricultural Commodities Traded at NCDEX and MCX

Fundamental Overview (Physical Market)

The week had ended with respectful gains in guar complex and castor seed. Oil complex and cotton complex markets on the other hand were able to recover after a soft trend during the early part of the week.

Mentha oil was flat throughout the week and markets observed limited trading activities. Physical trades improved slightly in Jeera and Dhaniya towards the later part of the week while turmeric markets were sideways amid routine sales and purchase-related queries. Jeera and Dhaniya could recover from the subdued trend, noted during the initial days of the week. The week also observed rains across most of India. It will be important to note whether the October rains will have a negative effect on the crop yields of soybean and cotton.   

The inventory situation for RM seed/ cotton, Dhaniya and edible oils remain tight therefore as festive season purchases continue, buyers will be comfortable in maintaining their presence in the derivatives market of these commodities, at every fall. Soybean on the other hand may face some resistance against rising arrival pressure, although the possible impact of October rains will be supportive for the futures, on ideas of crop damage possibilities.

Guar complex markets may remain supported this week as guar gum demand is robust. However, the approaching arrival season will be a limiting factor against the upside rally.

Technical Overview (Derivatives Market)

Crude Palm Oil (MCX November contract): Prices are most likely to remain firm during this week and November CPO at MCX may not sustain below 1085-1090. If the contract holds above this range, then prices may move towards 1145-1150 level.

Soybean Oil (NCDEX November contract): As compared with CPO (crude palm oil) the trend is not so strong. Yet as long as the November contract closes above 1215, then we can expect a moderate upside and prices may touch 1280-1285 by this Friday.

Soybean (NCDEX November contract): The near term view is downwards and we may see prices moving lower towards 4980-5000. But this is a zone where buyers may be interested to enter positions. If November soybean is able to close above 5000 for a day or two then an upside pull towards 5300-5330 is possible.

Cotton (MCX November contract): Prices are most likely to remain firm during this week and November Cotton at MCX may not sustain below 30500. If the contract holds above this range, then the upside rally can continue till 32120-32150.

Guar seed (NCDEX November contract): The view remains upwards but there may be a moderate decline in coming days as prices have been moving up since the last 3 consecutive trading sessions. November guar seed this week may range between 6350 and 7000.