Kharif Production is Estimated to Drop by 2% for the Crop Year 2022-23, Origo Commodities

Kharif Production in India is likely to drop this year. As per the latest estimate of Origo Commodities, India's Total Kharif Crop Production for the crop year 2022-23 is estimated at 640.42 MMT, which is 2% lower than the same period last year.

As per Rajiv Yadav, Sr. VP, Origo Commodities, first time in the history of our growth journey, they are going to launch Origo Kharif Crop Estimate for the Crop Year 2022-23 to arrive at a more realistic crop size/number. Total Kharif Production is estimated lower due to the drop in the production of paddy, groundnut, castor, jute, and sugarcane, Rajiv further said. Origo will come up with a Final Estimate in November 2022, said Rajiv.

Tarun Satsangi, AGM-Research, Origo e-Mandi, stated that Cotton Production for 2022-23 is estimated higher by 8.5% y-o-y at 34.2 million bales (of 170 kg each) against 31.5 million bales in 202122. Cotton acreage is estimated higher by 1.8% than the last year while yield is expected to gain by 6.6% from the last year given the favorable weather conditions in the key cotton-producing states this year. Higher production in Gujarat and Maharashtra, key producing states, would offset the production loss coming from other states.

Satsangi further said that Soybean production for 2022-23 is estimated higher by 4.5% y-o-y at 12.48 MMT against 11.95 MMT in 2021-22. Soybean acreage is almost flat to last year while yield is estimated to gain by 4.7% from the last year given the favorable rainfall distribution in the key soybean-producing states this year.

As per Indrajit Paul, Sr. Manager-Research, Origo e-Mandi, Maize production for 2022-23 is estimated higher by 1% y-o-y at 21.95 MMT against 21.77 MMT in 2021-22. Maize acreage is estimated flat to last year while yield is projected to gain by 1% from the last year given the suitable weather conditions in the key maize-producing states this year. Higher production in Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan will offset the production loss from Karnataka.

According to the estimate of Origo e-Mandi, Paddy production for 2022-23 is seen lower by 13% y-o-y at 96.7 MMT against 111.17 MMT in 2021-22. Paddy acreage has declined by around 9% to last year while yield is projected 5% lower the last year. The crop yield had adversely impacted due to deficient rain in Uttar Pradesh, West Bengal, and Bihar.