Climate Change May Significantly Lower Wheat & Rice Yield Sharply By 2050

In response to a question on the impact of climate change on agriculture in the Lok Sabha, Union Minister for Agriculture and Farmers' Welfare Narendra Singh Tomar said the Centre is aware of the impact of climate change on agricultural and farmers' life. It has devised plans to make agriculture more robust to climate change. 

He stated that significant field and simulation studies in agriculture were carried out by network centres located throughout the country, and that the climate change impact assessment was carried out using crop simulation models that included forecasted climates for 2050 and 2080.

In the absence of adaptation measures, rain-fed rice yields in India are anticipated to fall by 20% in 2050 and 47% in 2080 scenarios, while irrigated rice yields are projected to fall by 3.5% in 2050 and 5% in 2080 scenarios. He said climate change is anticipated to diminish the kharif maize yields by 18 per cent and 23 per cent in 2050 and 2080 scenarios, respectively.

One of the objectives of the National Action Plan on Climate Change (NAPCC) to address climate risks is the National Mission for Sustainable Agriculture (NMSA). The mission's goal is to develop and execute ways to make Indian agriculture more robust to climate change.

In 2011, the Indian Council of Agricultural Research (ICAR) established a network research initiative called 'National Innovations in Climate Resilient Agriculture' (NICRA) to address the issues of sustaining domestic food production in the face of changing climate.

He stated that the project aims to develop and promote climate resilient agricultural technologies that address vulnerable areas of the country, and that the project's outputs assist districts and regions prone to extreme weather conditions such as droughts, floods, frost, heat waves, and so on, in dealing with such extreme events. Short-term and long-term research programmes comprising adaptation and mitigation spanning crops, horticulture, cattle, fisheries, and poultry have been undertaken, he said.

In response to a separate question about assistance to onion farmers in the aftermath of the commodity's price crash, Tomar stated that the government has decided to procure 2.50 lakh tonnes of rabi 2023 onion to stabilise prices during the lean season through central nodal agencies (CNAs) such as the National Agricultural Cooperative Marketing Federation (Nafed) and the National Cooperative Consumers Federation (NCCF) in equal halves.

Prices of onions have gone below ten rupees per kilogramme in key mandis in Maharashtra's Nashik area in recent weeks due to the big arrival of the late kharif crop and the predicted early arrival of the rabi crop. The government has authorised NAFED and NCCF to begin purchasing onions from these markets for simultaneous disposal in Maharashtra consumption centres.

He stated that Nafed began their purchase on February 24, and NCCF on February 28. He stated that as of today, both CNAs have bought a total of 12,950 tonnes (Nafed - 9,749 tonnes and NCCF 3201 tonnes). When a member asked if the government planned to restrict harvesters in the wake of pollution caused by stubble burning, the minister responded that there is no policy to prohibit the use of combine harvesters.

Modern agricultural machines, such as combine harvesters, decrease the drudgery of humans and draught animals, ensure the timeliness of harvesting operations, improve harvesting precision and efficiency, and reduce losses. When compared to other harvesting processes, combine harvesters have a higher cutting height. But, straw reapers, forage harvesters, slashers, balers, and rakes are already being used by farmers to remove the residues left behind by combine harvesters, he noted.