El Nino May Trigger a Drought-Like Condition in India, Warns ICCS Director DS Pai

This year, India faces a drought-like situation due to the El Nino weather phenomenon, which is expected to reduce monsoon rainfall to less than 90% of the long-term average, Institute of Climate Change Studies Director DS Pai has warned.

High temperatures associated with El Nino may have a year-long impact, according to Pai. "El Nino is likely this year, following three years of La Nina. There were instances of rainfall totaling less than 100 mm. Earlier in 1952, 1965, and 1972, when the monsoon was below 90, the situation resembled drought. We're in the same boat," Pai explained.

La Nina is the polar opposite of El Nino, a climate pattern that describes the unusual warming of surface waters in the Pacific Ocean and is linked to rainfall deficits and droughts in India and its neighbours. It is bad news for India, where agriculture provides a living for half of the population.

India must be cautious because the effects of global warming are also felt in the monsoon. "With the likely El Nino impact, there may be a long dry period. If El Nino persists through the winter and spring of 2024, next year could be the warmest on record. If El Nino persists, the temperature record may be broken in 2024," Pai said.

Temperatures are rising across the country, and an increase above normal is predicted. "High temperatures are expected to persist for a few more days. We anticipate that it will be neutral by May. El Nino develops in the Pacific during the spring and reaches a peak in the winter.

El Nino forecasting is difficult at first. To forecast the El Nino situation and its impact on the weather pattern, we must wait 1-2 months. "Nine monsoons have been rainfall-deficient due to El Nino since 1950," he said.

India is currently experiencing below-average rainfall. It is possible that monsoon rainfall will be less than 100%, but other factors will come into play. La Nina is still continuing, and it will take time for the phenomenon to establish itself. 

El Nino may have an impact on rainfall in September, the final month of the monsoon season. According to Pai, the performance of the monsoon at the start is critical. According to BL Meena, a former agriculture ministry advisor, a poor monsoon due to El Nino will have an impact on farm production.

"Sowing begins in June. It is determined by the frequency and volume of rain. If the frequency is right, then moisture will develop in the soil. But if there is a dry spell, it will last a long time," said Meena. According to Depinder Sharma, an agricultural expert, while things are fine now, Punjab farmers are concerned about rising temperatures.

"The problem could be worse than last year. Due to the high temperatures, 3MT of wheat was lost, the previous year. A 1-degree increase in temperature can reduce wheat production by 6MT. We must be prepared for anything. We'll have a better picture by April. Climate anomalies can occur, and we must keep an eye on the food security situation," Sharma said.