IMD Maintains ‘Above Normal’ Forecast for Monsoon; Heavy Rainfall Expected in Odisha and Northeast Due to Cyclone Remal

In April, the IMD projected that rainfall from June to September would be 6% above the normal average of 87 cm. While central and southern India, particularly the monsoon ‘core zone’ critical for the kharif crop, are anticipated to receive ‘above normal’ rainfall, northeastern states are likely to experience deficient rains.

Cyclone Remal, which made landfall in Bangladesh on Monday, has propelled the eastern branch of the approaching monsoon system closer to the Indian mainland. This advancement has set the stage for an imminent onset of the monsoon over Kerala, although it remains uncertain whether eastern India will see the monsoon before Kerala.

Considering the IMD's extremely heavy rainfall warning, Odisha’s Special Relief Commissioner (SRC) has instructed the collectors of four districts—Kendrapara, Bhadrak, Balasore, and Mayurbhanj—to stay on high alert. These directives come as a response to the depression over the central Bay of Bengal, which is expected to bring substantial rainfall to the region.

The IMD has also warned of potential waterlogging in northeastern states today, as Cyclone Remal weakens into a deep depression. Heavy rainfall is forecast for parts of West Bengal and the northeastern states, including Assam, Meghalaya, Arunachal Pradesh, Nagaland, Mizoram, Manipur, and Tripura. Light rainfall is expected in other areas. The IMD has advised residents in these regions to move to safer locations and avoid areas prone to waterlogging.

The deep depression is predicted to weaken further into a depression over the next six hours, bringing heavy rains that may damage vulnerable structures, including thatched houses and huts, as well as kutcha and pucca roads. Low-lying areas might face inundation and localized flooding, disrupting traffic due to waterlogging. In West Bengal, light rainfall is expected in most places, with isolated instances of heavy to very heavy rainfall.

Earlier reports on Monday detailed the impact of Cyclone Remal as it downgraded from a severe cyclonic storm after making landfall along the coasts of Bengal and Bangladesh on Sunday night. The storm brought heavy rainfall and gusty winds to several districts in Bengal, resulting in six fatalities.

The IMD continues to monitor the situation closely, providing updates and warnings to ensure public safety as the monsoon season approaches.