Monsoon Forecast 2024: Expectation of 'Normal' Rainfall Amid Climate Shifts

Skymet Weather, a meteorological agency, has recently released its monsoon forecast for the upcoming 2024 season. According to Skymet's projections, the monsoon for this year is expected to be 'normal', amounting to approximately 102% of the long-period average (LPA) rainfall, which stands at 868.6mm for the period spanning June to September. This forecast falls within a margin of error of +/- 5%.

Transition from El Nino to La Nina

One key factor influencing this year's monsoon dynamics is the transition from El Nino to La Nina. Skymet notes that the shift from El Nino to La Nina tends to enhance the strength of monsoon circulation. Despite potential risks at the onset of the season due to the residual effects of El Nino, the latter part of the monsoon season is anticipated to be more robust.

Impact of ENSO and IOD

Apart from the ENSO (El Nino Southern Oscillation), other factors such as the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) also play a critical role in shaping monsoon patterns. The likelihood of a positive IOD during this season is expected to complement the effects of La Nina, offering favorable conditions for a more productive monsoon. Nonetheless, the initial phase of the season might experience disruptions owing to the rapid transition from El Nino.

Regional Rainfall Prospects

Skymet's regional outlook suggests that South, West, and Northwest India can expect substantial rainfall. Maharashtra and Madhya Pradesh, key agricultural states highly dependent on monsoon rains, are projected to receive adequate precipitation.

However, concerns arise for the eastern states of Bihar, Jharkhand, Odisha, and West Bengal, which may encounter deficit rainfall during peak monsoon months of July and August. Northeast India is likely to witness below-average rainfall in the first half of the season.