SEA Worried About El Nino Impact on Upcoming Monsoon

El Nino, according to climate scientists and meteorological agencies around the world, could exacerbate the effects of climate change and cause the planet's temperature to briefly exceed the 1.5-degree Celsius warming threshold.

This aided domestic agriculture and increased exports of agricultural commodities such as wheat, rice, oilseeds, sugar, oilmeals, and other commodities. The right climatic conditions are the backbone of the agricultural economy, Ajay said, adding that reports that India may experience El Nino during the upcoming South-West monsoon season are cause for concern. 

He said with El Nino likely set to return this year, an already warming earth and ocean surface due to global climate changes, could see unprecedented and extreme weather events. He stated that Indian meteorologists believe it is too early to predict the actual impact of El Nino on the rainy season. Only a few forecasts predicted an El Nino during the upcoming monsoon season.

He believes it is too early to speculate because the long-term forecast of El Nino is less accurate. "Let us cross our fingers and pray to Lord Indra for a plentiful monsoon this season," he said. He stated that the SEA had consistently expressed to the government concerns about rising edible oil imports, which were jeopardising the country's edible oil security.

The Association's expectations for an announcement on the launch of the National Mission on Edible Oils, in line with the Prime Minister's vision of atmanirbharta, were disappointed in the Union Budget, he said. The sharp increase in RBD palmolein imports during the first three months of the oil year (November-October) 2022-23, at 6.30 lakh tonnes (lt), represented nearly 20% of total imports. This was preventing domestic industry from utilising its capacity.

He urged the government to raise the duty difference between crude palm oil (CPO) and refined palmolein/palm oil to at least 15% from the current 7.5 percent to help the palm refining industry. This could be accomplished by raising the RBD palmolein duty from 12.5% to 20% without changing the CPO duty, he said. According to Jhunjhunwala, oilmeals exports increased by 70% in the first ten months of the fiscal year 2022-23 compared to the same period last year. During 2022-23, total oilmeal exports are expected to reach 40 lt, worth over 10,000 crore.