Weather Update: Severe Rainfall Expected Across South Interior Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, Goa and Rayalaseema

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has issued alerts for heavy to very heavy rainfall in various regions across South India, as a cyclonic circulation has developed over the Arabian Sea. This weather update provides a detailed look at the current systems and forecasts affecting the region over the coming days.

Weather Systems at Play

1. Cyclonic Circulation in Arabian Sea

• A cyclonic circulation was observed over the north Lakshadweep area on October 17th. By 18th October 2024 this system is located over the east-central Arabian Sea, extending up to 5.8 km above mean sea level.

• A low-pressure area is expected to form over this region within the next 12 hours and will likely intensify, moving west-northwestwards, away from Indian coasts, over the next three days.

2. Trough Extending Across South India

• A trough is extending from the above cyclonic circulation over the Arabian Sea to the South Andhra Pradesh coast across Karnataka and Rayalaseema. It extends up to 3.1 km above sea level and will influence weather patterns in these areas.

3. Formation of Cyclonic Circulation in North Andaman Sea

• A new upper air cyclonic circulation is expected to form over the North Andaman Sea around October 20th. This could result in a low-pressure area forming over the Central Bay of Bengal around October 22nd, further intensifying into a depression by October 24th.

Rainfall Forecast & Warnings (18th-24th October)

1. South Peninsular India:

The India Meteorological Department has issued forecasts for widespread rainfall across various regions in South India over the coming week. Heavy rainfall is expected in Tamil Nadu, Puducherry & Karaikal, and South Interior Karnataka, with isolated heavy showers also predicted for Rayalaseema and North Interior Karnataka. Meanwhile, the Andaman & Nicobar Islands are likely to experience significant rainfall, with similar conditions anticipated for Gangetic West Bengal and Odisha.

2. East India

In East India, the Andaman & Nicobar Islands, Gangetic West Bengal, and Odisha are expected to experience significant rainfall in the coming days. The Andaman & Nicobar Islands will see fairly widespread to widespread light to moderate rainfall, with isolated heavy rainfall anticipated on October 20 and 21. Meanwhile, Gangetic West Bengal and Odisha should prepare for isolated heavy rainfall on October 23 and 24. Residents in these areas are advised to remain vigilant and take necessary precautions as the weather conditions evolve.

3. Northwest, West, Central & Northeast India:

No significant rainfall is forecasted for Northwest, West, Central, and Northeast India during the week. Residents in these regions can expect dry weather, making it a good time for outdoor activities and preparations ahead of the upcoming seasonal changes.

Residents in the affected regions are advised to stay informed about the weather conditions and take necessary precautions against heavy rainfall and potential flooding.