Lumpy Skin Disease had Minor Impact on India’s Milk Output This Year: USDA

The outbreak of Lumpy Skin Disease in some parts of India has had a minor impact on India's liquid milk production this year. The Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) of the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) has reduced milk output for 2022 by 0.5%, or about one million tonnes, to 202.5 million tonnes (mt), from an earlier estimate of 203.5 mt.

According to the FAS report, which was released on October 26, this is due to lower milk yield in cattle and water buffalo herds affected by the LSD outbreak in Maharashtra and northern India.

According to the report, rising fodder and grain prices contributed to lower milk yield per animal. According to the report, the uneven 2022 monsoon, which was marked by prolonged dry spells combined with unusually high rains, impacted fodder availability throughout 2022. However, the projected 202.5 mt output for 2022 is about 1.75 percent higher than the 199 mt output in 2021.

Furthermore, the US agency predicted that liquid milk output in 2023, beginning in January, will be 2.2 percent higher at 207 mt, up from 202.5 mt in 2022. This is far less than the estimated 6% growth in milk output over the last eight years. Following higher milk production and increased export demand, the FAS forecasts skimmed milk powder (SMP) production in 2023 at 740,000 mt, up 6% from the previous year.

According to the report, factors limiting dairy cow productivity include Indian bovines' low genetic potential, limited nutritious and balanced feed rations, and insufficient veterinary care. India's average milk yield per animal per day is lower than that of the United States, which is over 30 kg/day, and the United Kingdom, which is 22 kg/day. However, India's per capita milk consumption is 427 g/day (2020-2021), which is higher than the global average of 305 g/day.

According to the report, due to an increase in input costs in 2022, cow milk procurement prices would range between Rs 32-36/litre and buffalo milk procurement prices would range between Rs 55-57/litre. Milk's average consumer retail price was Rs 54/litre.

Beginning in April 2022, the wholesale price index (WPI) index for milk, ghee, butter, and powdered milk (SMP) steadily increased from around 140-145 in 2019 to 165-170 in the quarter ended September 2022. However, the WPI for fodder price index increased at a faster rate, rising from around 140 in 2019 to 220 in September 2022. This imposed an additional cost on dairy farmers' production costs.