US Agriculture Department Raises Corn Harvest View, Lowers Soy Production Outlook

The USDA has lowered its soybean output forecast month to month, while marginally raising its corn outlook. 

This year's U.S. soybean harvest is estimated to be 4.425 billion bushels as of November 1st, down 1% from October due to a yield drop to 51.2 bushels per acre, but up 7% from 2020. Corn production is expected to reach 15.062 billion bushels, up slightly from the previous month, with an average yield of 177 bushels per acre, up half a bushel from a year earlier. Estimates for harvested area remained unchanged. These figures are subject to change as the maize and soybean harvests in the United States continue. 

In 2020, the United States produced 4.216 billion bushels of soybeans at an average yield of 51 bushels per acre, and 14.112 billion bushels of maize at an average yield of 171.4 bushels per acre. 

Owing to a larger ethanol usage estimate, the USDA cut maize ending stocks, pushed soybean stocks higher according to slower export demand, and boosted wheat ending stocks due to flour milling data. 

Globally, the USDA lowered its estimate for Argentina's soybean crop but raised its outlook for Argentina's corn crop, and although output estimates for Brazil remained constant, the agency did improve Brazil's soybean export projection while dropping China's import estimate. 

Soybean and maize futures rose sharply after the news was released, while wheat futures extended their gains. 

The USDA's latest supply, demand, and production forecasts will be released on December 9th. 

Brownfield state comparisons

Arkansas: Corn: 151.89 million bushels, up from 111.32 million in 2020; average yield of 183 bushels per acre, up from 184 both a month and a year earlier; harvested area of 830,000 acres, up from 605,000 the previous year; Soybeans: 150.5 million bushels, up from 144.2 million in 2020; average yield of 50 bushels per acre, up from 50 a month ago and 51.5 a year ago; harvested area of 3.01 million acres, up from 2.8 million last year; harvested area of 3.01 million acres, up from 2.8 million last year 

Illinois: Corn: 2.236 billion bushels, compared to 2.12 billion in 2020; average yield of 207 bushels per acre, compared to 210 a month ago and 191 last year; harvested area of 10.8 million acres, compared to 11.1 million last year; Soybeans: 675.2 million bushels, up from 615 million in 2020; record average yield of 64 bushels per acre, up from 64 a month ago and 60 a year ago; harvested area of 10.55 million bushels, up from 10.25 million last year;  

Indiana: Corn: 992.25 million bushels, up from 981.75 million in 2020; record average yield of 189 bushels per acre, up from 194 a month ago and 187 a year ago; harvested area of 5.25 million acres, unchanged from the previous year; Soybeans: 324.33 million bushels, compared to 338.07 million in 2020; average yield of 57 bushels per acre, compared to 60 a month ago and 59 a year ago; harvested area of 5.69 million acres, compared to 5.73 million last year;  harvested area of 5.69 million acres, compared to 5.