USDA Lowers Average Soybean Price Forecast; Raises Ending Stock Estimate

The USDA released its August demand and supply report on Friday, August 12. The August WASDE becomes important since it is the first time in the growing season that the NASS i.e., National Agricultural Statistics Service, will release yield estimates to reflect current crop conditions, calculated from a farmer survey distributed in July 2022.

As reported by the USDA the U.S. soybean supply for 2022/23 include higher beginning stocks, production, exports, and ending stocks. Beginning soybean stocks are raised on lower 2021/22 exports. Soybean production for 2022/23 is forecast at 4.53 billion bushels, up 26 million with higher yields more than offsetting lower harvested area. Harvested area is forecast at 87.2 million acres, down 0.3 million from July. 

The estimate for US soybean yield was raised to 51.9 bu/acre, higher than the July estimate of 51.5 bu/acre. Soybean supplies for 2022/23 are projected at 4.8 billion bushels, up 36 million from last month. U.S. soybean exports are raised 20 million bushels to 2.16 billion on increased supplies. Soybean ending stocks are forecast at 245 million bushels, up 15 million.

The average price for US soybean is now estimated lower by the USDA. The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2022/23 is forecast at $14.35 per bushel, down 5 cents from last month. Soybean meal and oil price forecasts are unchanged at $390 per short ton and 69.0 cents per pound, respectively.

The higher forecasts for soybeans, rapeseed, and sunflower seed partly offset lower cottonseed production in the United States. As such the global oilseed production is raised by 2.9 million tons to 646.0 million. Overall, the 2022/23 global oilseed supply and use forecasts include higher production, crush, exports, and ending stocks compared to last month.

Meanwhile China’s soybean production is being increased in higher planted areas (as reported in the recent official reports). Australia’s canola crop is increased by 0.7 million tons to 6.1 million on higher yields resulting from favourable weather conditions.