India's coffee exports to grow by 2% in 2023-24 on rising demand: USDA forecast

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The USDA India Post's latest projection suggested that the demand for Indian coffees in the export market will remain strong throughout 2023-24. However, trade sources indicate that the current prices are discouraging international buyers from placing large orders.

Ramesh Rajah, President of Coffee Exporters Association stated that the strong demand for Indian Robustas, especially the Robustas cherry is seen operating the projected growth. He added that we are observing a good demand for the lower-priced Robustas while we don’t have a huge rise in Arabica shipments. The Effect of weak economic conditions is seen as stimulating the demand for Robustas.

Shipment Statistics

According to the latest data from the USDA, India's coffee exports for the current year 2022-23 have reached a total of 6.225 million bags, with each bag weighing 60 kg. From October to May 15, which represents the period of the ongoing 2022-23 season, the shipment amounted to approximately 2.38 lakh tonnes, showing a decline of approximately 10% compared to the previous year when it reached 2.65 lakh tonnes, as reported by the Coffee Board Data.

Farmgate prices of Indian coffee are currently at their highest levels in a decade, primarily due to global supply issues leading to a surge in international prices. Since the beginning of the Indian marketing year in October 2022, green bean prices for Arabica parchment and Robusta cherry have risen by 9% and 24% respectively.

The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) Post predicts that coffee production for the marketing year 2023-24 will reach 5.8 million bags, with 73,800 tonnes of arabica and 2.74 lakh tonnes of robusta. This forecast is lower than the estimate for the current year, which stands at 6.25 million bags.