Rabi Harvest Begins, Maize Prices Under Pressure: What Farmers & Consumers Need to Know

"Maize prices have dropped by about 15% in the last week and are now hovering around Rs 2,010 per quintal. As the harvest progresses and arrivals pick up over the next few weeks, we expect prices to fall below the minimum support price (MSP) level of 1,962," said Tarun Satsangi, AGM and head of Commodity Research at Origo eMandi. Maize prices in other Telangana markets are hovering around MSP levels.

According to Satsangi, demand for maize from the domestic poultry business is low because offtake has yet to recover. At the same time, shipments have been slow due to increased global supplies and weak demand from China due to the current flu scenario. Indian maize prices are $291 per tonne FOB, whereas Argentina is $301 and Brazil is $288. "With Indian maize at parity, we can expect a pick-up in export demand in the coming days," he said.

According to Origo, the rabi maize crop for 2022-23 will be 10.59 million tonnes (mt), up from 8.8 mt the previous year. This is primarily due to increased production in Bihar, West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Maharashtra, and Karnataka.

The Agriculture Ministry's second advance estimates showed rabi maize output at 10.78 mt, somewhat better than the objective of 10.1 mt but slightly below than the previous year's 11 mt.

"After reaching all-time high prices last year, farmers are hoping that prices will rise to match those levels this year." We expect farmers to hold and sell as harvest progresses and arrivals build up in the coming weeks', said Kishor Kumar Jha, CEO & Director of Ergos, which provides warehousing services in 174 locations across 24 districts in Bihar, serving 7,000 villages.

According to Ministry forecasts, total maize output for 2022-23 will be 34.6 mt, up from 33.7 mt the previous year. With corn prices under pressure, some farmers may decide to save their product and sell it later.