Small & Marginal Farmers to Face Declining Crop Yield Due to Climate Change Says NICRA

Climate change is having a significant impact on agriculture in India, and small and marginal farmers are particularly vulnerable. The country has seen successive acute monsoons in recent years, leading to a decline in the area of crop coverage for monsoon crops like paddy and pulses. This has resulted in a depreciating surplus of certain food grains in the central pool compared to previous years.

Indian government has cited a study by the National Innovations in Climate Resilient Agriculture (NICRA) to highlight the adverse effects of climate change on agriculture. According to the study, rainfed rice yields in India are projected to reduce marginally (<2.5%) in 2050 and 2080 and irrigated rice yields by 7% in 2050 and 10% in 2080 Wheat yield is projected to reduce by 6-25% in 2100 and maize yield by 18-23%. However, the study also suggests that climate change is likely to benefit chickpeas with an increase in productivity (23-54%).

The ICAR policy brief on the impact of climate change on Indian Agriculture concluded that climate change adversely impacts both the kharif and rabi (sowed during winter) crop yields across agro-climatic zones. The report states that while the near-term impact of climate change on crop yields will not be severe, the increasing incidence of extreme fluctuations in climate in the form of droughts, dry spells, floods, and heat waves could result in a discernible effect on agriculture production and productivity.

The vulnerability indicators mentioned in the report include annual rainfall, available water holding capacity (AWC) of soil, and groundwater availability. For instance, annual rainfall is less than 500 mm in 28 districts largely located in Rajasthan, Haryana, and Punjab.

The AWC, which indicates the amount of water that a plant can take from the soil, is less than 60 mm in 164 districts, many of which are located in Bihar, Chhattisgarh, Jammu and Kashmir, Arunachal Pradesh, and Assam. Groundwater, which is the most dominant source of irrigation in the country, is one of the most yield-stabilizing factors. Low groundwater availability is a potent constraint to stable agricultural production.

Despite the adverse effects of climate change, the Second Advance Estimate for the production of major crops predicts record production of rice, wheat, maize, gram, moong, rapeseed & mustard, and sugarcane for the year 2022-23. However, the overall production of wheat in 2021-22 was 2.75 million tonnes less than the estimated production.

The National Innovations in Climate Resilient Agriculture (NICRA) is a network project that was launched by the Indian Council of Agricultural Research (ICAR) in February 2011 to study and address the impacts of climate change on Indian agriculture. The project aims to develop climate-resilient agriculture practices and technologies that can help farmers adapt to the changing climate.