Weather Update (October 11): Heavy Rainfall Expected in Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Arunachal Pradesh, and Other Regions

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has issued weather updates highlighting heavy rainfall across various regions of India, alongside the continued withdrawal of the Southwest Monsoon. Here’s the overview of IMD forecast for upcoming weather events across different parts of the country. 

Southwest Monsoon Withdrawal

As of October 10, 2024, the Southwest Monsoon is steadily withdrawing. The line of withdrawal passes through several regions including Nautanwa, Sultanpur, and Panna. Favorable conditions are expected for the complete withdrawal of the monsoon from parts of Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh, Maharashtra, Bihar, and Jharkhand within the next 2-3 days.

Weather Systems in Play

• Well-marked Low Pressure over Arabian Sea: A low-pressure system that intensified into a well-marked low over the east-central Arabian Sea (near Karnataka-Goa coast) is likely to move northwestwards and strengthen into a depression over the central Arabian Sea within 2-3 days.

• Cyclonic Circulation near Tamil Nadu: Another cyclonic circulation is currently observed over the Southwest Bay of Bengal, near Tamil Nadu, extending up to mid-tropospheric levels. Another fresh system is likely to form over the south Bay of Bengal around October 12, 2024.

• East Assam Cyclonic Circulation: The cyclonic circulation over east Assam and nearby regions persists at lower tropospheric levels, causing significant rainfall in the region.

Heavy Rainfall Alerts

The IMD has issued heavy rainfall warnings for several regions from October 10th to 16th, 2024, covering the southern peninsula, northeast India, and western coastal areas.

South Peninsular India:

• Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, and Karaikal: Heavy to very heavy rainfall is expected between October 10th and 15th, with isolated areas experiencing intense downpours on October 13th and 14th.

• Kerala & Mahe: Kerala is likely to receive very heavy rainfall on October 13th and 14th, while the region will see isolated heavy rainfall throughout the week.

• Karnataka: Both North and South Interior Karnataka will experience heavy rainfall on October 10th-11th, with South Interior Karnataka continuing to see rain through October 12th and 14th.

Northeast India:

• Arunachal Pradesh: The region will experience widespread light to moderate rainfall, with isolated heavy showers from October 10th to 12th.

• Assam & Meghalaya: Isolated heavy rainfall is forecasted from October 10th to 11th.

Western India:

• Konkan & Goa and Gujarat: The IMD predicts heavy rainfall in Konkan & Goa on October 10th and 11th, with Gujarat following suit from October 10th-13th. Isolated very heavy showers are expected in both regions, along with Saurashtra and Kutch from October 11th-13th.

Northeast, East & Central India

• Sub-Himalayan West Bengal & Sikkim: These areas will experience scattered light to moderate rainfall throughout the week, with isolated heavy rainfall on select days.

• No Significant Rainfall in Northwest India: The IMD reports no major rainfall expected over the northwest regions of India for the next week.

The IMD’s latest forecast points to widespread heavy rainfall in the southern, northeastern, and western regions of India, with a mix of isolated heavy and very heavy rain. With the monsoon’s withdrawal progressing further, regions like Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, and Maharashtra are expected to become drier in the coming days. Residents in affected areas should remain vigilant, especially with possible cyclonic developments in the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal.