India Surpasses Japan to Become the 3rd Most Powerful Nation in 2024 Asia Power Index

In a remarkable geopolitical shift, India has overtaken Japan to claim the third spot in the 2024 Asia Power Index, reflecting its growing influence and rising stature in the region. This achievement highlights India's robust economic growth, youthful population, and its expanding role in regional and global affairs.

India’s Steady Rise in the Asia Power Index

The 2024 Asia Power Index, published by the Lowy Institute, underscores India's consistent rise in regional power dynamics. India’s progress in this annual ranking has been driven by its growing economic capabilities, strategic influence, and demographic advantages. With an eye on the future, the country is well on its way to solidifying its position as a leading force in Asia.

Key Drivers of India’s Rise

Several factors have contributed to India’s surge in the Asia Power Index, with three main pillars standing out:

1. Economic Growth

India’s post-pandemic recovery has been impressive, leading to a 4.2-point increase in its Economic Capability score. The country’s large population and significant GDP growth have positioned it as the world’s third-largest economy in purchasing power parity (PPP) terms. This economic strength has further reinforced its ability to project power across the region.

2. Future Potential

India's youthful population has proven to be a vital asset, driving its Future Resources score up by 8.2 points. Unlike its ageing counterparts like China and Japan, India’s demographic dividend is expected to sustain its economic and labor force growth for decades to come. This positions India as a future powerhouse in the region, with long-term growth prospects.

3. Diplomatic Influence

Under the leadership of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, India’s diplomatic reach has expanded significantly. The country's non-aligned stance allows it to navigate complex international dynamics effectively. In 2023, India ranked 6th globally for diplomatic dialogues, reflecting its active participation in multilateral platforms and growing global recognition.

India’s Strategic Role in the Indo-Pacific

India’s influence in Asia has been particularly notable in the realm of diplomacy and security. Its involvement in regional security frameworks, like the Quad, showcases its increasing leadership role. Although India does not engage in formal military alliances, its participation in defense cooperation—such as the BrahMos missile deal with the Philippines—highlights its evolving role in regional security.

India’s economic outreach, while still developing, is gaining traction, especially in the defense sector. The country's efforts to extend its geopolitical influence beyond its immediate neighborhood signal a broader strategy of projecting power in the Indo-Pacific region.

Asia Power Index: Measuring Geopolitical Influence

The Asia Power Index, launched by the Lowy Institute in 2018, is an annual ranking that evaluates the power dynamics of 27 countries in the Asia-Pacific region. The Index assesses each country’s ability to shape and respond to external challenges, considering both material resources and influence-based factors. The 2024 edition is the most comprehensive to date, including Timor-Leste for the first time, reflecting its growing role in Southeast Asia.

Power Measurement Criteria

The Asia Power Index divides its assessment into two primary categories: resource-based and influence-based determinants.

Resource-Based Determinants

1. Economic Capability: Assesses the economic strength of countries, measured through GDP (PPP), technological advancement, and global connectivity.

2. Military Capability: Evaluates the conventional military power of a country based on defense spending, troop numbers, and strategic assets.

3. Resilience: Focuses on a country’s ability to withstand threats to internal stability, including geopolitical and resource security.

4. Future Resources: Forecasts the distribution of key resources, such as economic and military capabilities, through to 2035.

Influence-Based Determinants

1. Economic Relationships: Measures a country’s ability to leverage its trade, investment, and economic diplomacy.

2. Defense Networks: Looks at the strength of military alliances and partnerships.

3. Diplomatic Influence: Assesses a country’s diplomatic reach and its participation in multilateral forums.

4. Cultural Influence: Considers the global impact of a country’s cultural exports and media presence.

India’s Optimistic Outlook

India’s growing influence in the Asia Power Index signals a promising future. With its expanding economy, youthful workforce, and increasing diplomatic presence, India is poised to play an even greater role in shaping the geopolitical landscape of the Asia-Pacific. As the country continues to leverage its vast resources and strategic autonomy, it is well-positioned to maintain its upward trajectory in the coming years.

(Inputs taken from PIB)