USDA Lowered Estimates for Red Meat, Poultry & Egg Production

Estimates of 2021 red meat, poultry, and egg production have been adjusted to reflect December production data, according to the most current World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report from the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). 

The total red meat and poultry production for 2022 is somewhat lower than last month, as higher forecast beef output is more than offset by lower pork, broiler, and turkey production. The beef output prediction is up from the previous month, as greater expected placements in the first half of 2022 are marketed in the second half of the year. However, the rise in fed cattle slaughter is compensated in part by a decrease in non-fed cattle slaughter. Pork production is lowered on a slower pace of slaughter. Forecasts for broiler and turkey output have been reduced based on current hatchery data and higher than expected feed expenditures. The prediction for egg production has been reduced from last month because increased feed costs are likely to moderate production growth. 

Estimates for livestock, poultry and egg trade in 2021 have been adjusted to reflect December trade data. The beef import prediction for 2022 has been enhanced due to increasing demand for processing beef; the export forecast remains constant. 

Pork exports are being restricted due to persistent weakening in Chinese demand and greater competition in other markets. The broiler export projection has been reduced due to decreasing demand from a number of Asian markets.

Due to decreased demand, the turkey export forecast has been cut from last month. 

Fed-cattle prices are expected to rise in the second half of the year due to strong packer demand. Forecasts for hog, broiler, turkey, and egg prices are boosted based on current prices and slower growth of production expected during the year.  Egg prices are also being boosted as a result of current price increases and slower output growth. 

The forecasts for 2021 milk production, trade and stock are adjusted to reflect December data. The milk production prediction for 2022 has been reduced from last month due to decreasing dairy cow numbers. According to the Cattle report, the dairy cow inventory on January 1 was about 1% lower than in 2021, and the number of heifers maintained for dairy cow replacement was 3% lower. The fat basis import prediction for 2022 is enhanced due to greater predicted butter imports, while exports are reduced on lower expected shipments of butter and cheese. 

On a skim-solids basis, the import forecast rises due to greater imports of milk proteins and other dairy-containing products, while the export projection falls due to lower predicted sales of whey products and skim milk powder. 

On the basis of current prices, lower expected milk production and tightening stocks, annual product price forecasts for cheese, butter, nonfat dry milk, and whey are raised from the previous month. Higher product costs boost both the Class III and Class IV prices. The prediction for all milk prices in 2022 has been raised to $23.55 per cwt.