IMD Predicts Colder Days in Many States in February; Rainfall Likely in Punjab & Haryana

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) says that the temperature in many states is anticipated to be below average in February, while Punjab and Haryana are projected to get above-normal rainfall.

In its monthly rainfall and temperature forecast for February, the weather forecasting agency stated that normal to below-normal rainfall is most probable over most parts of North India, with the exception of most parts of Punjab and Haryana, where above-average rainfall is predicted.

"During the month of February 2022, below normal minimum temperatures are most likely over most parts of the country, with the exception of eastern parts of northeast India, south peninsular India, and southeastern parts of central India, where normal to above normal minimum temperatures are likely," the report said.

"Below normal maximum temperatures are predicted throughout most parts of the country, with the exception of the eastern and southwestern coastal areas of peninsular India, where temperatures are likely to be normal to above normal," the IMD stated.

Currently, weak La Nina conditions are prevailing over the equatorial Pacific region. The La Nina weather phenomenon is associated with harsh winter conditions.

According to the most recent Monsoon Mission Climate Forecasting System (MMCFS) indicates that these La Nina conditions are expected to weaken starting with the northern hemisphere spring season and to approach cold ENSO neutral conditions during the second quarter of 2022.

According to the outlook, IMD has implemented a new strategy for generating monthly and seasonal rainfall and temperature forecasts for the country. The new strategy is built on a forecasting system based on the newly developed Multi-Model Ensemble (MME).

The MME approach employs coupled global climate models (CGCMs) from various global climate prediction and research centers, including the IMD/MoES Monsoon Mission Climate Forecast System (MMCFS) model.