Weather Update: IMD Issues Warning for Heavy Rain, Thunderstorms, and Fog Across Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Delhi, and Northeast India

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has released its latest weather forecast, highlighting significant developments in weather systems, rainfall, temperature, and fog conditions across the country. A low-pressure area is expected to form over the Bay of Bengal, with heavy rainfall likely in southern and northeastern states. Dense fog is forecasted to impact visibility in parts of northern India, while temperature variations are anticipated across different regions. Here’s a detailed overview of the weather forecast.

Weather Systems at Play

1. Cyclonic Circulation over East Equatorial Indian Ocean:

• A cyclonic circulation persists over the east Equatorial Indian Ocean and the adjoining south Andaman Sea.

• Low-Pressure Area Formation: A low-pressure area is likely to form over the southeast Bay of Bengal by 23rd November, progressing west-northwestwards and intensifying into a depression over the central south Bay of Bengal in the following two days.

2. Trough Formation:

• A trough extends from the cyclonic circulation to the Gulf of Mannar at lower and mid-tropospheric levels.

3. Western Disturbance:

• A western disturbance manifests as a trough along 65°E longitude, north of 30°N at lower tropospheric levels.

Rainfall Forecast

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has issued a detailed rainfall forecast for various regions of India, with significant weather changes expected over the next week. From 23nd to 28th November, several states and Union Territories are likely to experience varying intensities of rainfall, including light to moderate showers and isolated heavy rainfall. Key regions such as the Andaman & Nicobar Islands, Assam & Meghalaya, and Tamil Nadu, along with Kerala and Puducherry, will be particularly affected. The following table summarizes the expected rainfall patterns and intensities across these areas.

Severe Weather Warnings

Thunderstorms and lightning are likely to occur over Kerala, Mahe, Coastal Andhra Pradesh, and Yanam on 25th and 26th November. Additionally, isolated hailstorm activity is expected over Meghalaya on 22nd November.

Fog conditions will also be prevalent, with dense fog expected during the late-night and early-morning hours in several northern regions. These include Punjab, Haryana, Chandigarh from 23nd to 24th November, Uttarakhand on 23rd and 24th November, and Himachal Pradesh from 23rd to 26th November.

Temperature Analysis

India's temperature patterns exhibit notable regional variations, with fluctuations in minimum temperatures across different parts of the country. While some regions are experiencing warmer-than-normal nights, others report significantly cooler conditions. Here's a detailed overview of current trends and forecasts for the coming days.

Current observations indicate no significant change in minimum temperatures across most regions of the country. The lowest minimum temperature recorded was 8°C, reported at Hissar (Haryana) and Sikar (East Rajasthan). These areas are experiencing cooler conditions compared to other parts of the country.

Temperature Deviations

Forecast Trends

• Gradual fall in temperatures by 2-3°C over Northwest India after the next two days.

• Rise in minimum temperatures by 1-2°C over Central India by the weekend.

Delhi/NCR Weather Updates (23nd-25th November)

The weather in Delhi/NCR over the coming days is expected to remain mostly clear, with a slight rise in both minimum and maximum temperatures compared to recent days. Shallow to moderate fog and smog will persist during the early morning and evening hours, accompanied by light winds predominantly from the northwest. Visibility may be reduced in certain areas, especially during the early hours, making travel precautions necessary.

Current Conditions:

• Minimum temperature: 9°C to 12°C.

• Maximum temperature: 25°C to 27°C, slightly below normal.

• Visibility: 500-1100m, with shallow fog reported at Safdarjung and Palam airports.

Forecast:

Residents are advised to stay prepared as heavy rainfall and thunderstorms are expected in the southern and northeastern regions in the coming days. Dense fog conditions may also affect visibility across northern states, potentially disrupting travel. Additionally, temperature variations are likely to continue, with cooler nights expected in Northwest India. It is crucial to stay updated with latest advisories to receive real-time alerts and make necessary precautions.