Recent heavy downpours in Dubai and other parts of the Persian Gulf have raised concerns about the role of climate change in aggravating extreme weather events. Although there is evidence indicating a link between intense rainfall and climate change, a recent study indicates that conclusive evidence is still lacking.
Collaborative research involving experts from around the world sought to analyze the impact of human-induced climate change on the severity and likelihood of the flooding that occurred from April 14 to 15, 2024. The majority of the unusually intense rainfall fell in the UAE and northern Oman, causing serious infrastructure damage and fatalities.
The unprecedented rainfall event was attributed to a low-pressure system originating from Eastern Europe, which triggered violent storms across Asia. Scientists at World Weather Attribution estimate that in just one day, the world has received 10% to 40% more rain than it would have received without the 1.2°C temperature rise caused by greenhouse gas emissions since the Industrial Revolution.
However, the complexity of the climate system and the region's hyper-arid nature contribute to uncertainty in attributing the event solely to climate change. Previous heavy rainfall events in the area have been associated with the El Niño Southern Oscillation, a natural climate phenomenon.
The analysis indicates a trend in observed heavy rainfall linked to current warming levels, making such events more likely. Climate models, while not consistently showing a similar trend, also exhibit high uncertainty due to the region's variable rainfall patterns.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) AR6 assessment suggests a "medium confidence" that heavy precipitation will increase detectably in the Arabian Peninsula with further global warming. However, the discrepancy between model projections and observations underscores the need for further research to understand the drivers of extreme weather events in the region.
The complexity indicates a trend in observed heavy rainfall linked to current warming levels, making such events more likely. Climate models while not consistently showing a similar trend also exhibit high uncertainty due to the region‘s variable rainfall patterns.
The floods caused extensive property destruction and many casualties despite meteorological services' earlier warnings. Vulnerable populations, including the elderly, individuals with disabilities, and migrant workers, were disproportionately affected due to challenges in responding to flood risks.
Factors such as urban development, inadequate drainage, and hyper-arid soils aggravate the region's susceptibility to flash floods. While the UAE and Oman have implemented disaster risk management strategies, there is a need for proactive urban planning and improved early warning systems to mitigate future impacts. Additionally, the report highlights that cloud seeding, a technique sometimes used to induce rainfall, had no significant influence on the event's severity.
Addressing these challenges requires a comprehensive approach that integrates scientific research, effective disaster management, and proactive adaptation strategies.
