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US Rice Production estimate for 2020-21 lower than previous month, World Rice crop projected higher

The US Department of Agriculture has reduced the estimate for 2020/21 U.S. rice production this month while keeping the domestic use unchanged. World trade projection is raised by 1.0 million tons to 45.3 million tons, mainly on expected increase in exports by India.

Abhijeet Banerjee

The US Department of Agriculture has reduced the estimate for 2020/21 U.S. rice production this month while keeping the domestic consumption unchanged. On the other hand export estimate is decreased exports, while ending stocks has been given a hike. Supplies are lowered, all on reduced medium- and short-grain imports.

Imports are lowered by 0.8 million cwt to 36.5 million as reduced shipments from China to Puerto Rico are expected. Exports are lowered by 2.0 million cwt to 95.0 million on the continued weak pace of sales and shipments in the first half of the marketing year (MY) with all the reduction for long-grain. Projected 2020/21 of rice ending stocks are higher by1.3 million cwt to 50.8 million, up 77 percent from last year.

Meanwhile the report indicates slightly higher supply projections, larger consumption, increased trade, and reduced stocks for 2020-21. Rice supplies are raised 0.4 million tons to 679.4 million, mainly due to increased beginning stocks for Pakistan and higher production for Australia. World production estimate for 2020/21 is raised by 0.1 million tons. Higher production for Australia and Peru is reported followed by a reduction for South Korean crop projection. 

Global 2020/21 consumption estimate on the other hand is increased by 1.2 million tons to 500.4 million, and this revision is based on increase in consumption estimate for Nigeria and Saudi Arabia. World trade projection is raised by 1.0 million tons to 45.3 million tons, mainly on expected increase in exports by India. Projected 2020/21 world ending stocks are lowered by 0.8 million tons to 179.0 million. However the stocks are still at record high with China and India accounting for 65 and 17 percent, respectively. It should be noted that all these estimates are in comparison with November month’s estimated figures.

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