Jeera was the top performer on NCDEX futures, rising over 3.4 percent. In the Unjha spot market in Gujarat, jeera hit Rs 47,985.90 per quintal. Over the past six months, the seed spice has risen by almost 90 percent, while it has increased by nearly 30 percent in the last month alone. The surge is being attributed to reduced crop yields and heightened demand, especially from China.
Premchand Motta, a spice expert, acknowledged a supply deficit. He told an English Daily that "wealthy farmers are holding 50% of their jeera crop. He also noted that at least five bags weighing 55 kg have been left from last year’s stock, while 30/35 lakh carryover bags were recorded in 2022.
He said that farmers try to sell their stocks if the market gets closed for two or three days, good arrivals can be expected. Analysts have predicted that 60-65 percent of the overall crop in Rajasthan and 65-70 percent of the total crop in Gujarat arrived in markets. That would make approximately to 28-30 million bags (each weighing 55 kg) of the expected 50 million bag harvest that has already entered the market.
Daily jeera arrivals in Unjha peaked at 30,000 to 35,000 bags approximately a month ago, but have since declined to around 7,000 to 8,000 bags each day. According to Kedia Advisory's study report, "Jeera prices have risen over 50% in 2023 due to consistent increase in export demand. The amount of cumin purchased by China is so large that it is difficult to meet the demand for export processors. China has imported 300 to 350 containers of cumin from India in the last three weeks. Bangladesh has also made considerable cumin purchases.”
The international pipeline is now empty, and India is the sole major supplier to worldwide buyers. According to the Kedia Advisory, the fresh crop from Syria and Afghanistan will begin between June 15-20. The jeera harvest in Afghanistan is predicted to be greater than last year. "Cumin traders in Syria claim a crop of 20,000 to 30,000 tonnes (the largest crop in the last ten years) if weather conditions remain favorable for the next month," it added. This is thought to reduce prices to some extent.
However, because of increased export demand, the present rise is projected to last until May 15-20. However, jeera prices may rise again in the future as seeding demand for the next crop increases, further compressing already-scarce supplies.
