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Flour Mills' Hired Firm Predicts Record Wheat Output of 102.89 mn Tonnes

Higher by 5 million tonnes than last year, but lower than the Government's expectation of 112.18 million tonnes uge discrepancy between private firm output estimates and government numbers Farmers harvest wheat in a village on Gurugram's outskirts on Friday.

Shivam Dwivedi
Flour Mills' Hired Firm Predicts Record Wheat Output of 102.89 mn Tonnes
Flour Mills' Hired Firm Predicts Record Wheat Output of 102.89 mn Tonnes

Both private and government entities believe that untimely rainfall and hailstorms will cause a 1 mt to 2 mt loss in production. The Roller Flour Millers' Federation of India (RFMFI) commissioned a private firm to estimate the country's wheat production at 102.89 million tonnes (mt) this year, up from 97.69 mt last year, after factoring in 1.35 mt of crop losses due to unseasonable rains and hailstorms in the previous month.

In February, the government projected a record high of 112.18 mt for this year, up from 107.74 mt the previous year. "Although both the government and private sectors agree that production is 4-5 mt higher than last year, there is a 9 mt difference in production estimates between the two," a flour miller stated. Subodh Kumar Singh, Additional Secretary in the Food Ministry, stated in Delhi on Friday that wheat availability will be at least 10 mt more this year. (5 mt from export ban and 5 mt from higher production).

According to him, both private and government agencies believe that 1-2 mt of production will be lost owing to late rainfall and hailstorms. "It is good that the private sector is also coming forward to do these types of studies and come up with some figures," Singh added.

They have revealed their approach as well as how they arrived at those figures.  Whether the estimates are correct or not will be determined throughout time. The organizations conducting this poll will also improve their technique in order to arrive at the most accurate estimations." He stated that because the government has been making numerous policy decisions, knowing the actual crop projections is beneficial for the government. He stated that such estimations will assist the Food Ministry in making decisions on export, open market sale scheme (OMSS), and public distribution system. 

To halt the rise in domestic prices, the government has banned wheat exports since May 2022. The RFMFI has requested the government to relax the prohibition on wheat exports once the government's procurement is completed. RFMFI commissioned AgriWatch to estimate wheat output in March at 104.24 million tonnes. However, after accounting for crop losses, the prediction was reduced downward to 102.9 mt, according to Nalin Rawal, director. (GIS services).

In his address to the gathering, Ashok K Meena, Chairman and Managing Director of Food Corporation of India (FCI), stated that approximately 0.7 million tonnes of wheat had been acquired so far, compared to less than 0.2 million tonnes in the previous year.

He urged millers to buy wheat on the open market rather than rely on the government. However, he emphasized that if the planned 34.15 mt of wheat is procured, there will be some available for OMSS. Wheat stock with FCI was 8.4 mt as of April 1 compared to the buffer requirement of 7.5 mt, according to Meena.

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