The First Advance Estimates for 2020-21 (Kharif Only) was released by the Agriculture Ministry yesterday and in all the estimates of the Kharif crops are much above last year. The Report highlighted record production in case of food grains, rice and groundnut. Total food grain production estimate in the country as per the release is estimated at 144.52 million tonnes. The production during 2020-21 is expected to be higher by 9.83 million tonnes than the average food grain production of previous five years’ (2014-15 to 2018-19) according to the PIB release. Similarly total Kharif Rice production for 2020-21 is estimated at 102.36 million tonnes, which is higher by 6.70 million tonnes than the previous five years’ average production of 95.66 million tonnes. Production of Nutri / coarse cereals is estimated at 32.84 million tonnes, and higher by 1.45 million tonnes than the average production of 31.39 million tonnes.
Total Kharif pulses production during 2020-21 is estimated at 9.31 million tonnes, above last year by 1.59 million tonnes. In 2019-20 pulses production was 7.72 million tonnes (fourth advance estimate). In case of Kharif Oilseeds, net production this year may be near to 25.73 million tonnes which is higher by 3.41 million tonnes than the production during 2019-20. Also, production of oilseeds during 2020-21 is higher by 5.90 million tonnes than the average oilseeds production.
Similarly total Sugarcane production of India for 2020-21 is estimated at 399.83 million tonnes. The production of sugarcane during 2020-21 is currently expected higher by 39.40 million tonnes than the average sugarcane production of 360.43 million tonnes. On the other hand cotton production of the country estimated at 37.12 million bales (of 170 kg each), is higher by 1.63 million bales than the production of 35.49 million bales during 2019-20. Production of Jute & Mesta is estimated at 9.66 million bales (of 180 kg each).
Actual Production May Be Lower for Cotton/Soybean: Therefore India is set for a decent Kharif Crop harvest versus previous year. But for Kharif crops like Soybean and Cotton It will be important to assess the actual production for the current year as increase in seeding area may not translate into similar rise in the production levels. The Soybean crop may get damaged or yields can drop in some of the producing belts of MP and Maharashtra because of recent heavy rains in both the states, which is a limiting factor for growth of the standing crop. The Soybean Processors Association of India (SOPA) had anticipated crop area loss of 10-12% on account of heavy rains in Madhya Pradesh (MP). This estimate was based on a survey undertaken by the industry body in the rain-affected areas of the state. As per the SOPA, the most affected districts were Indore, Dewas, Ujjain, Dhar, Sehore, Harda, Shajapur, Mandsaur and Neemach.
Likewise one has to consider the probable crop loss that can occur in cotton crop since cotton in some of the producing areas of Haryana are most likely to get affected against August rains. Following waterlogged conditions across districts of Hissar, Fatehabad, Jind and Bhiwani districts, nearly 50000 acres may be adversely affected. Waterlogging situation emerged after the August rains. Official reports and assessments from farmers indicate that cotton, grown over nearly 10,000 acres has been destroyed completely. Apart from damage from August rains, cotton growers the above mentioned districts are also worried from the Whitefly attacks on cotton crop. The state of Haryana received good rains in the beginning of August, especially in villages of Hisar’s Barwala, Fatehabad’s Bhuna and Bhiwani’s Tosham and Siwani blocks. Rains as well as prevailing hot and humid weather conditions has resulted in pest infestation in recent weeks. It will take few more weeks in order to evaluate the possible production for these two Kharif Crops. As of now it can be inferred that the actual production in Cotton and Soybean may be lower than the current estimates made by analysts and Industry persons.
