Delhi residents woke up to a pleasantly cool morning today, with the weather department forecasting a high of 25°C and a low of 15°C. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) predicts a day filled with potential rain showers and thunderstorms accompanied by mist and reduced visibility at times. With a steady wind blowing at 10 km/h and humidity levels reaching over 70 percent, the likelihood of rainfall remains high throughout the day, offering a brief respite from the impending heat wave conditions forecasted for the upcoming months.
IMD's Seasonal Outlook: A Warmer Horizon with Rainfall Variability
The IMD's latest release provides a comprehensive outlook for the season spanning March to May (MAM) 2024, indicating a general trend towards above-normal temperatures across most parts of India. Exceptions include isolated areas in the Northwest, Northeast, Central, and Peninsular India, where normal to below-normal maximum temperatures are more likely. The minimum temperature forecast mirrors this pattern, with above-normal lows predicted for the majority of the country.
For March 2024, the forecast suggests above-normal maximum temperatures predominantly over the Peninsula, Northeast, and West Central India, along with many areas of Northwest India. Conversely, East and East-central India, along with parts of Northwest India, are expected to experience normal to below-normal maximum temperatures. Minimum temperatures are similarly projected to be higher than normal across most regions, apart from isolated areas along the Himalayas.
IMD Anticipate Heat Waves and Rainfall Distribution
The IMD's heatwave outlook for the season underscores an increased number of heatwave days over much of the country, except in the Northeast, the Western Himalayan Region, the Southwest Peninsula, and the West Coast. Specifically, for March 2024, regions such as Northeast Peninsular India, many areas of Maharashtra, and parts of Odisha and adjoining areas are likely to witness above-normal heatwave days.
Rainfall in March 2024 is expected to exceed normal levels (>117 percent of the Long Period Average) across the country, with normal to above-normal rainfall predicted for most parts. However, southeastern areas of the South Peninsula and certain regions in the Northeast and extreme Northwest India might see below-normal rainfall. This forecast comes against prevailing El Niño conditions over the equatorial Pacific, which are anticipated to weaken and transition to neutral in the upcoming season.
Extended Range Forecasts and Climate Predictions
The IMD continues to enhance its forecasting capabilities, employing a Multi-Model Ensemble (MME) approach that integrates global climate models for more accurate predictions. Alongside seasonal outlooks, the department provides extended-range forecasts, offering weekly updates on rainfall and temperature expectations for the coming four weeks. These forecasts, crucial for agricultural planning and water resource management, are readily accessible through the IMD website.
As Delhi enjoys today's mild weather, the broader seasonal forecast highlights the importance of preparedness for varied weather conditions, from heatwaves to fluctuating rainfall patterns. With climate change influencing weather unpredictability, such detailed forecasts are invaluable for planning and mitigating potential impacts on daily life and the economy.
