Turmeric Commodity Trading

Chander Mohan
Chander Mohan

Turmeric is an ancient spice, a native of South East Asia, used from antiquity as dye and a condiment. It is cultivated primarily in Bengal, China, Taiwan, Sri Lanka, Java. Peru. Australia and the West Indies. It is still used in rituals of the Hindu religion, and as a dye for holy robes, being natural, un synthesized and cheap. Turmeric is in fact one of the cheapest spices. Although as a dye it is used similarly to saffron, the culinary uses of the two spices should not be confused and should never replace saffron in food dishes. Its use dates back nearly 4000 years, to the Vedic culture in India where it was used as a culinary spice and had some religious significance. The name derives from the Latin terra merita “meritorious earth” referring to the colour of ground turmeric which resembles a mineral pigment. In many languages turmeric is simply named as “yellow root”.

Worldwide it is known as golden spice. Apart from India, it is cultivated in most of the Asian countries, Africa, South Pacific Islands, Malagasy, Caribbean Islands and Central America. Turmeric belongs to the group curcuma and there are 30 varieties included in it 'Alleppey Finger', 'Erode and Salem turmeric', 'Rajapuri' and 'Sangli turmeric', 'Nizamabad fingers' are some popular varieties of India. Turmeric crop takes 7-9 months to mature, the crop is sown during June-July and harvested during February - March.

What makes Turmeric good investment?

India contributes nearly 85-90% of the global turmeric production. India's annual production ranges between 8.5 to 9.3 lakh tons.

Being the largest producer in world India dominates the export market for turmeric. India exports around 7-8 percent  of the total production. UAE, Iran, Bangladesh, Malaysia, Japan, UK, Egypt and USA are the major buyers for the Indian origin.
India being the largest producer and consumer, the price of Turmeric is mainly determined by domestic factors.

Why is Turmeric a wise investment for an Indian trader?

1. India is the largest producer, consumer as well as exporter of turmeric in the world. This makes Turmeric prices very open to to changes in Indian demand and supply.

2. Turmeric futures contract was launched on NCDEX platform on July 2004 and has witnessed considerable volatility since its launch.

3. Good availability in physical markets provides cash and carry opportunity to arbitragers. It serves as a hedging platform for the Producers and Exporters. 

4. Turmeric contract is highly liquid and provides easy entry and exit to a speculator. Thus the Turmeric contract provides space for every investor category.

Trend updated for - Jun/04/2018.CMP-7100 The Turmeric is in long- medium- term bull phase. Currently Turmeric is in strong downtrend with good momentum and the trend is supported with good volume The open interest is not increasing with trend . Noting point is selling at lower levels seems decreasing. The oscillator is showing SELL signal For short term Turmeric is in SELL position. Positionally Support for the Turmeric is 7015-6928-6904-.Resistance for the Turmeric is 7200-7227-7269-

Short term and Intraday Level of TURMERIC

Currently Turmeric is in HOLD LONG position Turmeric is in profit booking mode so either sell  or keep stop at7060 so better sell and enter at lower level The oscillator is showing SELL signal

Intraday Trend- Buy is advised above 7167.2 with a stop at 7059.4 Below 7033 go for sell

Intraday Resistance of TURMERIC are 7152.9 : 7196.8 : 7218.9 : 7236.6

Intraday Support of TURMERIC are 7047.1 : 7003.2 : 6966.2 : 6948.9

With the first spell of monsoon rains in Kerala, farmers have filled with joy. The traders are also looking for a good monsoon, but in the meantime everyone is thinking that the monsoon would be good or cheat again like the previous year.

Prices of turmeric have been stagnant amidst the monsoon forecast, as farmers and traders are looking at the early trends of monsoon, which is favourable for high yield, but in the report of IMD it has been said that rainfall may be less than normal in key producing states, i.e. Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh and some parts of Tamil Nadu. If the prediction of IMD is proved to be true, it may be possible to see a decline in production in the coming year too.

Significantly, the arrival of turmeric is decreasing day by day. Farmers do not want to sell their produce at current prices. In the major markets of India, about 75 percent of turmeric has been arrived while, the rest of the produce is left with farmers. Some part of this can be sold by the farmers till June 15, because during this time money is required for the seeding/sowing. In the coming weeks, a slight rise in arrivals can be seen.

Turmeric production was seen lower in Andhra Pradesh, Maharashtra and Tamil Nadu in the last year due to lack of rainfall. However, despite the increase in the acreage, production in Maharashtra was reduced. However, according to reliable sources, 65 to 70 percent of new crop has arrived in Maharashtra. If this is taken into consideration, turmeric production is being seen less than the estimate because in the areas of Basmatnagar, Hingoli and Nanded, about 7 to 8 lakh bags have been arrived.

This year due to weak production, prices were seen very good till few days ago but owing to selling from speculators side, the prices were seen coming down again but farmers do not want to sell at a lower price. Therefore, there is a declining trend in the arrival.

According to the latest trends, now the stockists may enter in the market. The stockists are seen active every year before or after the second week of June. It can be seen this year too, which may bring upside in prices again.

Meanwhile, about 60 to 62 lakh bags of production is being estimated in India this year, which is about 10 percent less than last year, while the old stock has been reported almost 40 percent less, but the average rate of consumption is moving up with increase in population every year. After adding consumption from domestic and export fronts, the total average consumption is about 82 to 84 lakh bags. If we focus on the current data, then the production is of of 62 lakh bags and after adding old stocks of 20 to 22 lakh bags, the total supply is expected to be about 82 to 84 lakh bags.

However, according to reliable sources, it is becoming very difficult to assess the old stock in the market in the current situation as during the time of the note ban large traders and those with huge cash had stocked it abundantly but there is no data available for those stock in the market. But according to sources, the total such stock is likely to be about 8 to 9 lakh bags (2-3 lakh bags in Erode, 2 lakh bags in Nizamabad, 2-3 lakh bags in Maharashtra, 1 lakh bags in Warangal, Duggirala and Kadapa about one lakh bags in Kadapa). And during an upcoming uptrend, the said stock can come in the market, due to which volatility can be seen again.

According to traders, this year, there is not much risk in turmeric, if there is a slight delay in the monsoon, prices may move northwards to some extent.

According to the Agmarknet data, a total of 46,800 tonnes of turmeric was available in the first 25 days of May, while during the same period last year about 65,555 tonnes had been seen. The data shows that in this year production has declined.

According to sources, till now a total of 30 to 32 lakh lakh bags of spice have been stocked (5.5 lakh bags in Nizamabad, 5 to 6 lakh bags in Basmatnagar, Nanded, and Hingoli, about 5 lakh bags in Sangli, about 7 lakh bags in Erode, Warangal and 2 lakh bags in Duggirala and Kesamudram, 5 to 6 lakh bags in Kadapa and 1 lakh bags in other areas).

However, according to traders, turmeric can see a maximum upside of 12-15 per kg in the coming time. According to them, there is no possibility of further upside, but weak and delayed monsoon may spurt the market again.

According to the technical chart, slight uptrend may sustain in June futures. If the June contract closes above 7,232, then the level of 7,478 and 7,552 can be seen but if it closes below the level of 6926, a level of 3,740 can appear. However, according to the chart, there is an upward trend in June contract.

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